Food for thought. Unten ein Auszug aus dem "On My Radar"-Newsletter vom letzten Samstag
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar...ong-short/
"Corporate Stock Buybacks – Individuals Going the Other Way
From Axios:
Typically, stocks rise because investors are buying them, increasing prices. But that’s not what’s happening in 2019.
What’s new: U.S. equity prices are soaring to record highs, with the S&P 500 up 17% and the Nasdaq up 21% in just 4 months. But not only are investors not buying, they’re selling.
The big picture: Stock funds have seen $4 billion of outflows so far in 2019, surpassing the $2.9 billion of outflows for all of 2018 when the S&P fell by 6%. This year’s outflows included a drawdown of nearly $11 billion in just the month of March, according to data from Lipper, which tracks $49.1 trillion in assets globally.
What’s happening: The strange phenomenon can partially be explained by investors moving away from traditional mutual funds at a historic pace, particularly in U.S. stock funds.
•“The negative investor sentiment about domestic equity mutual funds has been a long-term trend,” Pat Keon, senior research analyst at Lipper, tells Axios. “The net outflows for this group have been worse over the last several years than even during the global financial crisis.”
But that’s only part of the story. Investors also are clearly wary of the historic stock rally, now pushing toward an 11-year bull run, and are nervous about global growth slowing. Equity funds have seen 11 straight weeks of net outflows, Lipper’s data shows.
•Safe-haven fixed income funds, on the other hand, have seen $107.7 billion of inflows year to date.
The intrigue: The bond market is reflecting this worry, but stocks so far have not, largely because of company buybacks and low volumes, analysts say.
•S. companies have purchased $272 billion of their own shares so far this year, on pace to break 2018’s record $1.085 trillion.
•There also have been less transactions overall, says Jim Paulsen, chief economist at the Leuthold Group, opening up the market to bigger price moves. That’s allowing small buys to have big impacts.
The bottom line: The “Twilight Zone” state of affairs may actually be good news for stocks because it means investors aren’t overconfident, say analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. In fact, sentiment is historically low, according to the bank’s consensus indicator.
•“Historically, when our indicator has been this low or lower, total returns over the subsequent 12 months have been positive 92% of the time, with median 12-month returns of 18%,” BAML analysts said in a note to clients."
Unterm Strich heißt es dort, dass Handelsvolumen zurückgegangen sind, Gelder aus Aktien heraus fließen, während Gelder in Fixed Income Funds fließt, dass aber die Firmen mit dem billigen Geld, anstatt zu investieren, weiter Aktienrückkäufe betreiben, welche letztes Jahr bereits auf Rekord-Niveau waren und sich in diesem Jahr anschicken, dies nochmal zu überbieten und da bei niedrigen Umsätzen allein diese Aktienrückkäufe für steigende Kurse sorgen können.
Ohne Aktienrückkäufe würden die Kurse nicht da stehen, wo sie jetzt sind. Interessant wird das beim Crash werden. Es wurden teils langfristige Kredite zu niedrigen Zinsen aufgenommen und dafür Aktien zurückgekauft. Das Spannende daran ist, dass den Krediten bilanziell ja die aufgekauften Aktien gegenüberstehen. Wenn die Börsen nun crashen und damit der Aktienkurs stark fällt, dann könnte das bilanziell zu Schieflagen führen. Aktienrückkäufe machen nun mal am meisten Sinn, wenn die Kurse niedrig sind, sind sie aber aktuell nicht.....
