Markt-Timing - möglich oder nicht?

Ein schön geschriebener Artikel auf Seeking Alpha. Der Autor unterstellt, dass Market-Timing funktioniert, man Cash hält und es am 24. Dezember 2018 investiert hätte. Also am Tiefpunkt Ende 2018, wie wir heute wissen. Er diskutiert also diese drei Handlungsoptionen:

#1 Staying invested all the time;

#2 Keeping 30% in cash;

#3 Keeping 50% in cash.

Er beginnt die Simulation an einem für ihn relevanten Punkt, nämlich September 2017, als er 108.000 USD erhalten hat. Von da an spielt er die drei Szenarien durch mit interessantem Ergebnis:

Scenario #1: My Portfolio as of March 1st including my results

Therefore, I now show $134,526.13 CAD for a total return of 24.14%. This is not annualized since Sept 2017, it's total return.

Scenario #2: Keep 30% in cash and invest it on December 24

I get $133,132.23. Therefore, if I had waited with 30% of my amount in cash until the market dropped by 20% from its peak, I would have underperformed my portfolio by $1,393.90 or 1%. In other words, waiting with 30% in cash in hand was useless and hurt my potential return.

Scenario #3: Keep 50% in cash and invest it on December 24

$131,647.88. Shocker! Waiting with 50% in cash is even worst! Who's laughing now?

Details und Quelle:

I'm going 30% cash and I'll wait for the dip
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250980...rcent-cash