offline
Wenn es schon um laengerfristige Entwicklungen geht:
Die Memos von Howard Marks werden ja anscheinend sogar von Buffett wertgeschaetzt.
Im aktuellen gibt es eine Zusammenfassung der Finanzgeschichte ueber die letzten Jahrzehnte mit Beschreibung der seiner Meinung nach relevanten Treibern von dato bis heute - und dann die Ueberlegung was heute anders ist und was dieser Rueckschluss fuer die Zukunft bedeuten koennte.
Da sind doch einige recht interessante Gedankengaenge bei
Die Memos von Howard Marks werden ja anscheinend sogar von Buffett wertgeschaetzt.
Im aktuellen gibt es eine Zusammenfassung der Finanzgeschichte ueber die letzten Jahrzehnte mit Beschreibung der seiner Meinung nach relevanten Treibern von dato bis heute - und dann die Ueberlegung was heute anders ist und was dieser Rueckschluss fuer die Zukunft bedeuten koennte.
Da sind doch einige recht interessante Gedankengaenge bei
Zitat:Sea Change
sea change (idiom): a complete transformation, a radical change of direction in attitude, goals . . .
As I’ve recounted many times in my memos, when I joined the investment management industry in 1969, many banks – like the one I worked for at the time – focused their equity portfolios on the so-called “Nifty Fifty.” The Nifty Fifty comprised the stocks of companies that were considered the best and fastest-growing – so good that nothing bad could ever happen to them. For these stocks, everyone was sure there was “no price too high.” But if you bought the Nifty Fifty when I started at the bank and held them until 1974, you were sitting on losses of more than 90% . . . from owning pieces of the best companies in America. Perceived quality, it turned out, wasn’t synonymous with safety or with successful investment.
Meanwhile, over in bond-land, a security with a rating of single-B was described by Moody’s as “failing to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment.” Non-investment grade bonds – those rated double-B and below – were off-limits to fiduciaries, since proper financial behavior mandated the avoidance of risk. For this reason, what soon became known as high yield bonds couldn’t be sold as new issues. But in the mid-1970s, Michael Milken and a few others had the idea that it should be possible to issue non-investment grade bonds – and to invest in them prudently – if the bonds offered enough interest to compensate for the risk of default. In 1978, I started investing in these securities – the bonds of perhaps America’s riskiest public companies – and I was making money steadily and safely.
...
...
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
