@fahri
Bezgl. des LMT Cashflows gibt es gute Gründe, die aber etwas einmaliger Natur scheinen?
S&P zu LMT (Mai 2018):
Lockheed Martin Corp. Outlook Revised To Positive, Ratings Affirmed On Moderating Financial Policy
Although we expect Lockheed's credit measures to weaken in 2018 due to a
voluntary pension contribution, the outlook revision reflects our belief that
the benefits from U.S. tax reform, increasing defense budgets, and a
moderation of the company's financial policy could cause its FFO-to-debt ratio
to increase above our upgrade trigger of 40% in 2019. Lockheed Martin plans to
make $5 billion of voluntary pension contributions in 2018 to take advantage
of the old 35% tax rate. Although the payments will eliminate the company's
required pension contributions through 2020, it will depress its cash flow in
2018 and lead its FFO-to-debt to remain around only 30%-35% this year.
The positive outlook on Lockheed reflects our expectation that the company's
credit metrics will weaken in 2018 due to the planned pension contributions
before rebounding in 2019 on higher earnings and cash flow. We also expect the
company to moderate its share repurchases and pay down its debt as it matures,
which should cause its FFO-to-debt ratio to rise above 40% in 2019.
We could raise our ratings on Lockheed if its FFO-to-debt ratio rises above
40% at the end of 2019 and we expect it to remain there for an extended
period. This could occur if the company's cash flows improve as we expect in
2019 due to lower taxes and the absence of required pension contributions.
Management would also need to reduce its share repurchases, moderate its
dividend increases, and repay the company's debt as it matures. We would also
have to believe that management is committed to maintaining this more-moderate
financial policy going forward.
We could revise our outlook on Lockheed to stable if the company does not
reduce its share repurchases or pay down its upcoming debt maturities, causing
its FFO-to-debt ratio to remain below 40% and leading us to expect that it
will remain at that level. Although less likely, we could also revise the
outlook to stable if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings,
potentially due to funding cuts to key programs or significant cost overruns.
Ansonsten habe ich ad hoc keine herausragende Idee aus dem Bereich; BA ist Mischkonzern mit Defenseanteil, UTX spaltet sich gerade etwas auf, mmmhhh ... wie wäre es mal mit
GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) ?
Bezgl. des LMT Cashflows gibt es gute Gründe, die aber etwas einmaliger Natur scheinen?
S&P zu LMT (Mai 2018):
Lockheed Martin Corp. Outlook Revised To Positive, Ratings Affirmed On Moderating Financial Policy
Although we expect Lockheed's credit measures to weaken in 2018 due to a
voluntary pension contribution, the outlook revision reflects our belief that
the benefits from U.S. tax reform, increasing defense budgets, and a
moderation of the company's financial policy could cause its FFO-to-debt ratio
to increase above our upgrade trigger of 40% in 2019. Lockheed Martin plans to
make $5 billion of voluntary pension contributions in 2018 to take advantage
of the old 35% tax rate. Although the payments will eliminate the company's
required pension contributions through 2020, it will depress its cash flow in
2018 and lead its FFO-to-debt to remain around only 30%-35% this year.
The positive outlook on Lockheed reflects our expectation that the company's
credit metrics will weaken in 2018 due to the planned pension contributions
before rebounding in 2019 on higher earnings and cash flow. We also expect the
company to moderate its share repurchases and pay down its debt as it matures,
which should cause its FFO-to-debt ratio to rise above 40% in 2019.
We could raise our ratings on Lockheed if its FFO-to-debt ratio rises above
40% at the end of 2019 and we expect it to remain there for an extended
period. This could occur if the company's cash flows improve as we expect in
2019 due to lower taxes and the absence of required pension contributions.
Management would also need to reduce its share repurchases, moderate its
dividend increases, and repay the company's debt as it matures. We would also
have to believe that management is committed to maintaining this more-moderate
financial policy going forward.
We could revise our outlook on Lockheed to stable if the company does not
reduce its share repurchases or pay down its upcoming debt maturities, causing
its FFO-to-debt ratio to remain below 40% and leading us to expect that it
will remain at that level. Although less likely, we could also revise the
outlook to stable if the company reports lower-than-expected earnings,
potentially due to funding cuts to key programs or significant cost overruns.
Ansonsten habe ich ad hoc keine herausragende Idee aus dem Bereich; BA ist Mischkonzern mit Defenseanteil, UTX spaltet sich gerade etwas auf, mmmhhh ... wie wäre es mal mit
GENERAL DYNAMICS (GD) ?
