Interessant was China, bzw die asiatischen Tiger, von Japan unterscheidet und warum der Geburteneinbruch nicht unmittelbar ein Problem fuer China sein muss:
Zitat:...
According to the narrative, China is now facing a Japan-style reckoning with its property sector stuck in the doldrums for over three years. Of course, the above quote was written in 2010 when China’s economy was less than half its current size and annual investment in residential property would still triple. Some people just like to be early.
Japan is sui generis. No nation’s economy has underperformed so lamentably for so long after outperforming so spectacularly for even longer. It’s just not true that every country that has followed “the Japanese model” has had to suffer long periods of painful economic adjustment – at least nothing approaching Japan’s malaise.
None of the four Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) have experienced multiple decades of stagnation. And all of their per capita GDPs, coming from far behind, now exceed Japan’s on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.
....
...
China, in contrast, has not yet plateaued in enrolling students in higher education. From single-digit university enrollment rates at the turn of the century, in 2022 China enrolled 34% of its 18-year-old age cohort into four-year degree programs and 29% into junior colleges.
If college enrollment plateaued today, China’s college-educated workforce will increase fourfold over the next 30 years.
......
......
Japan never recovered financially, economically or socially after the US kicked its legs out from under it in the 1980s and 90s with the Plaza Accord, the evisceration of Toshiba and humiliating “voluntary” export quotas on cars.
..
Despite dipping into the junior college bench and educating a larger proportion of the population, Japan just could not offset its declining and demoralized youth by making them higher-quality workers. And as such, the country fell precipitously down the science, technology and industrial league tables.
...
...
https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/china-is-n...-japanese/