"... What does all of this mean for Bayer's dividend safety?
Until more is known, given the high stakes of this situation, we are downgrading Bayer's Dividend Safety Score from the low end of our Borderline Safe category to Unsafe.
####
(Anm.: 41-60 borderline safe, Absenkung auf aktuell 35)
####
Here's why.
First, the potential liability from Roundup litigation continues to balloon. Bloomberg analysts have increased their estimated settlement value to as much as $10 billion, up from a prior peak of $6 billion.
Meanwhile, credit rating agency Moody's is evaluating scenarios with settlement values ranging from $5.5 billion to $22 billion.
To put these figures in perspective, Bayer expects to generate $3.4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2019 free cash flow. Bayer pays an annual dividend that consumed approximately $2.9 billion this year.
In other words, just $0.5 billion to $1.6 billion of free cash flow is expected to be retained in 2019, an insufficient amount to cover a potentially large settlement while also deleveraging the balance sheet.
Bayer's net debt load ballooned to $40 billion following its acquisition of Monsanto. Management wants to reduce debt by around $10 billion by the end of 2022, with hopes of eventually improving its credit rating from BBB to A. ... "
(Quelle aus #53)
Mal grundsätzlich:
Das Thema Dividend Growth Investing ist für mich
(1) tatsächliche Quelle von passivem Einkommen,
(2) schier nicht enden wollender spannender Prozess Unternehmen, Industrien kennenzuLERNEN,
(3) ein Stück weit auch Hobby.
Meine Liebste ist Lehrerin und hatte sich vor Jahren mal ein Programm (WorkSheetCrafter) gekauft, um ihren Unterricht professioneller zu gestalten. Nebenbei ist das so gut eingeschlagen, dass die Schule eine Schullizenz erworben hat. Mitauslöser für den ursprünglichen Privatkauf war, dass es eben auch Spass macht damit zu arbeiten.
So sehe ich das auch mit SSD. Selbstredend geht das DGI prima ohne SSD. Aber es ist (1) extrem praktisch alle Zahlen per ONE STOP zu haben, es ist dazu (2) eine mE nach prima Einschätzung wie es um die jeweilige Dividendensicherheit bestellt ist. Die Analysen sind so hervorragend strukturiert und machen einfach Spass zu lesen - stets food for thought und Nachfragen werden flugs beantwortet. Und: Mein Depot bewegt sich per investiertem Kapital gen 150.000€ und ich finde, da sind $228 p.a. (alter Preis, ich weiß) sehr ok für mich.
Es geht ohne, es ist ein Stück weit Luxus, ich will Niemanden überzeugen, dazu gibt es die trial Phase. Wer meint, dies sei zu sehr black box*, den verstehe ich nicht ganz, denn Transparenz ist komplett gegeben, aber bitte, wie gesagt: muss jeder selbst für sich entscheiden!
*
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/behind-the-scenes
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/inte...end-safety
daraus:
"... Similarly, at Simply Safe Dividends, we pay a lot of money each year for access to institutional quality data feeds that serve as a backbone for our Dividend Safety Score system. By having a greater breadth and depth of accurate information at our fingertips, we can better assess risk.
For example, our scores are able to account for complicated issues like a retailer’s operating leases, a form of off-balance sheet debt. We can see that GE has a significant pension funding shortfall. And we have access to industry-specific metrics like adjusted funds from operations for REITs and distributable cash flow for MLPs to better analyze their underlying economics.
We also receive forward-looking analyst estimates. While I take forecasts with a grain of salt, it is helpful to quickly spot companies with deteriorating health. All of this data is piped into our system every day, ensuring that our scores incorporate the latest and greatest financial information reported by each of the 2,000+ companies we have rated for Dividend Safety.
But having a lot of high quality, up-to-date financial information is only part of the picture. You have to know what to do with it. Back in my days at the investment fund, I was a generalist analyst, meaning I was not tied to any one sector with my research duties. Instead, I studied stocks across many sectors of the market, including industrials, materials, tech, and consumer. .."
Until more is known, given the high stakes of this situation, we are downgrading Bayer's Dividend Safety Score from the low end of our Borderline Safe category to Unsafe.
####
(Anm.: 41-60 borderline safe, Absenkung auf aktuell 35)
####
Here's why.
First, the potential liability from Roundup litigation continues to balloon. Bloomberg analysts have increased their estimated settlement value to as much as $10 billion, up from a prior peak of $6 billion.
Meanwhile, credit rating agency Moody's is evaluating scenarios with settlement values ranging from $5.5 billion to $22 billion.
To put these figures in perspective, Bayer expects to generate $3.4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2019 free cash flow. Bayer pays an annual dividend that consumed approximately $2.9 billion this year.
In other words, just $0.5 billion to $1.6 billion of free cash flow is expected to be retained in 2019, an insufficient amount to cover a potentially large settlement while also deleveraging the balance sheet.
Bayer's net debt load ballooned to $40 billion following its acquisition of Monsanto. Management wants to reduce debt by around $10 billion by the end of 2022, with hopes of eventually improving its credit rating from BBB to A. ... "
(Quelle aus #53)
Mal grundsätzlich:
Das Thema Dividend Growth Investing ist für mich
(1) tatsächliche Quelle von passivem Einkommen,
(2) schier nicht enden wollender spannender Prozess Unternehmen, Industrien kennenzuLERNEN,
(3) ein Stück weit auch Hobby.
Meine Liebste ist Lehrerin und hatte sich vor Jahren mal ein Programm (WorkSheetCrafter) gekauft, um ihren Unterricht professioneller zu gestalten. Nebenbei ist das so gut eingeschlagen, dass die Schule eine Schullizenz erworben hat. Mitauslöser für den ursprünglichen Privatkauf war, dass es eben auch Spass macht damit zu arbeiten.
So sehe ich das auch mit SSD. Selbstredend geht das DGI prima ohne SSD. Aber es ist (1) extrem praktisch alle Zahlen per ONE STOP zu haben, es ist dazu (2) eine mE nach prima Einschätzung wie es um die jeweilige Dividendensicherheit bestellt ist. Die Analysen sind so hervorragend strukturiert und machen einfach Spass zu lesen - stets food for thought und Nachfragen werden flugs beantwortet. Und: Mein Depot bewegt sich per investiertem Kapital gen 150.000€ und ich finde, da sind $228 p.a. (alter Preis, ich weiß) sehr ok für mich.
Es geht ohne, es ist ein Stück weit Luxus, ich will Niemanden überzeugen, dazu gibt es die trial Phase. Wer meint, dies sei zu sehr black box*, den verstehe ich nicht ganz, denn Transparenz ist komplett gegeben, aber bitte, wie gesagt: muss jeder selbst für sich entscheiden!
*
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/behind-the-scenes
https://www.simplysafedividends.com/inte...end-safety
daraus:
"... Similarly, at Simply Safe Dividends, we pay a lot of money each year for access to institutional quality data feeds that serve as a backbone for our Dividend Safety Score system. By having a greater breadth and depth of accurate information at our fingertips, we can better assess risk.
For example, our scores are able to account for complicated issues like a retailer’s operating leases, a form of off-balance sheet debt. We can see that GE has a significant pension funding shortfall. And we have access to industry-specific metrics like adjusted funds from operations for REITs and distributable cash flow for MLPs to better analyze their underlying economics.
We also receive forward-looking analyst estimates. While I take forecasts with a grain of salt, it is helpful to quickly spot companies with deteriorating health. All of this data is piped into our system every day, ensuring that our scores incorporate the latest and greatest financial information reported by each of the 2,000+ companies we have rated for Dividend Safety.
But having a lot of high quality, up-to-date financial information is only part of the picture. You have to know what to do with it. Back in my days at the investment fund, I was a generalist analyst, meaning I was not tied to any one sector with my research duties. Instead, I studied stocks across many sectors of the market, including industrials, materials, tech, and consumer. .."
