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Mal ein bisschen eine kritische Sicht auf das indische Wachstumswunder:
Zitat:Why India Can’t Replace China
The Barriers to New Delhi’s Next Boom
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Without a doubt, India could be on the cusp of a historic boom—if it manages to increase private investment, including by attracting large numbers of global firms from China. But will New Delhi be able to seize this opportunity? The answer is not obvious. Back in 2021, we provided a sobering assessment of India’s prospects in Foreign Affairs. We pointed out that popular assumptions about a booming economy were inaccurate. In fact, the country’s economic rise had faltered after the 2008 global financial crisis and stalled completely after 2018.
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Relative to 2019, [Indian] GDP today is just 7.6% larger, compared with 13.1% in China and 4.6% in the US
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Despite all the talk about India as the investment destination of choice, overall foreign direct investment has stagnated for the past decade. For every firm that has embraced [India], many more have had unsuccessful experiences including Google, Walmart, Vodafone, and General Motors. Even Amazon has struggled, announcing in late November that it was shutting three of its Indian ventures, in fields as diverse as food delivery, education, and wholesale e-commerce....
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As of August 2022, nearly 80% of the $160 billion YTD increase in India’s stock market capitalization was accounted for by just one conglomerate, the Adani Group [...] In other words, the playing field is tilted.
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In other words, India faces three major obstacles in its quest to become “the next China”: investment risks are too big, policy inwardness is too strong, and macroeconomic imbalances are too large. These obstacles need to be removed before global firms will invest, since they do have other alternatives. They can bring their operations back to ASEAN, which served as the world’s factory floor before that role shifted to China. They can bring them back home to advanced countries, which played that role before ASEAN countries. Or they can maintain them in China, accepting the risks on the grounds that the Indian alternative is no better.
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/why...lace-china
