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Stocks dip in choppy session after red-hot inflation data
Alexandra Semenova
Reporter
Wed, July 13, 2022 at 10:04 PM

U.S. stocks edged lower for a third straight session Wednesday as investors mulled hotter-than-expected inflation data for June.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 210 points, or roughly 0.7%, though both indexes pared losses from sharper declines earlier in the day. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.2% but was an outlier for much of the session, trading in the green as technology stocks rebounded.

Treasury yields were in focus on Wednesday, with the most dramatic moves happening at the front end of the yield curve. The 10-year rose as high as 3.04% following the CPI print before retreating, with 2-year yields rising as much as 3.17%, prompting a further inversion.

The yield curve “inverts” when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those of longer-dated ones and have typically preceded recessions on Wall Street...............
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-mar...23992.html





Marktbericht
Unerwartet hohe Teuerung
Wall Street verdaut Inflationsschock
Stand: 13.07.2022 22:13 Uhr

Vollendete Tatsachen sind besser als Unsicherheit. Nach diesem Motto hat die Wall Street die erschreckend hohen Inflationsdaten zu Wochenmitte relativ gut verdaut. Der deutsche Markt reagierte nervöser.

Wie außergewöhnlich diese Zeiten sind, illustrieren zwei Zahlen, die heute über die Nachrichtenticker liefen: Erstmals seit mehr als 40 Jahren lag die Inflationsrate in den USA wieder über neun Prozent. Und erstmals seit 20 Jahren war ein Euro wieder weniger als einen Dollar wert.

Mit 9,1 Prozent stiegen die Preise in den USA im Juni noch stärker als befürchtet. Das ist die höchste Teuerungsrate seit November 1981. Von Reuters befragte Experten hatten für die mit Spannung erwartete Inflationsrate mit 8,8 Prozent gerechnet. Entsprechend schwach starteten die US-Börsen in den Tag. Der Dow Jones konnte seine Verluste im Tagesverlauf aber verringern und schloss nur noch 0,7 Prozent tiefer.


Erhöht die Fed um einen ganzen Prozentpunkt?

Nun erwarten die meisten Beobachter, dass die US-Notenbank den Leitzins auf ihrer Sitzung am 26. und 27. Juli um einen weiteren großen Schritt erhöht. Der US-Notenbanker Raphael Bostic schließt nach den jüngsten Daten sogar eine Zinserhöhung um einen vollen Prozentpunkt nicht aus. "Alles steht zur Debatte", sagte der Chef des Fed-Ablegers von Atlanta. An der Terminbörse CME ging am Abend auch eine deutliche Mehrheit der Marktteilnehmer von einem solchen historischen Schritt aus. Noch vor einer Woche hatte kaum ein Marktteilnehmer dieses Szenario auf dem Schirm.

"Die Märkte sind in Sorge, dass die Notenbanken zu stark an der Zinsschraube drehen und damit die Industrieländer in die Rezession führen", fasste Norbert Frey, Fondsexperte der Fürst Fugger Privatbank die Lage zusammen. "Es ist sehr wahrscheinlich, dass wir eine Rezession haben werden, weil die Fed aggressiv handeln muss", sagte Chris Zaccarelli, Investmentexperte bei Independent Advisor Alliance. Die Ökonomen der Bank of America prognostizieren einen Rückgang  des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) in den USA um 1,4 Prozent im vierten Quartal.


"Beige Book" spricht von Verlangsamung
Auch die US-Notenbank selbst spricht von einem mäßigeren Wachstum. "Mehrere Distrikte berichteten über zunehmende Zeichen für eine Verlangsamung der Nachfrage", teilte die Fed in ihrem am Abend veröffentlichten Konjunkturbericht "Beige Book" mit. In fünf der zwölf Bezirke seien Sorgen über ein erhöhtes Rezessionsrisiko laut geworden. Die Konsumausgaben hätten sich unter dem Strich abgeschwächt, weil die Einkommen der privaten Haushalte unter den hohen Lebensmittel- und Benzinpreisen litten.

Neue Impulse könnte in dieser Lage am ehesten die nun anlaufende Berichtssaison zum zweiten Quartal bringen. Morgen werden der US-Branchenprimus JPMorgan und die Investmentbank Morgan Stanley den Zahlenreigen der Großbanken eröffnen. Die Märkte erwarten bereits deutliche Gewinnrückgänge wegen der steigenden Kreditvorsorge..........
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https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/fin...s-251.html

Heute PPI, Jobless Claims

Hauptaugenmerk liegt auf die lange erwarteten Earnings der Banken - vor allem auch
welche  Aussagen zu den Aussichten gemacht werden.... 





Big banks are about to signal if we're heading into recession: Morning Brief
Brian Cheung
Anchor/Reporter
Thu, July 14, 2022 at 12:00 PM
High inflation is erasing income gains.

An ugly stock market is slashing wealth.

And the conversation has shifted from: “When will the recession come?” To: “Are we in recession already?”

And some of the world's biggest financial institutions may offer an answer to these questions.

Quarterly results from big banks will begin rolling out Thursday morning, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) set to report, while Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup © are due out Friday, followed by Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) results expected Monday.

And investors will be focused on one takeaway from these results: How are companies in charge of keeping the economy's financial wheels on track positioned in this environment?

“The big question is the r-word: recession,” Wells Fargo Securities bank analyst Mike Mayo told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "For all the negatives that are out there for the short term, there are some very big positives."

On the one hand, an extremely uncertain economic outlook may push the banks to bump up their buffers — or “reserves” — on the expectation that borrowers may later fail to meet interest payments on credit cards, mortgages, or business loans.

On the other hand, loans continue to be in demand through the post-pandemic boom — with few signs of an immediate tick up in loan delinquencies or charge-offs.

The nation’s largest bank hinted at these pressures last month, when JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors to “brace” themselves.
“I said there’s storm clouds but I’m going to change it…it’s a hurricane,” Dimon said at a conference in New York on June 1......................
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What to Watch Today
Economic calendar

    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI final demand, month-over-month, June (0.8% expected, 0.8% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.5% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.5% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI final demand, year-over-year, June (10.7% expected, 10.8% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, June (8.2% expected, 8.3% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: PPI excluding food, energy, and trade, year-over-year, June (6.6% expected, 6.8% during prior month)
    8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 9 (235,000 expected, 235,000 during prior week)
    8:30 a.m. ET: Continuing claims, week ended July 2 (1.380 million expected, 1.375 during prior week)


Earnings

Pre-market

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.88 per share on revenue of $31.98 billion
    Morgan Stanley (MS) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.57 per share on revenue of $13.33 billion
    Conagra (CAG) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 64 cents per share on revenue of $2.93 billion
    First Republic Bank (FRC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.08 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion
    Cintas (CTAS) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $2 billion

Post-market
    American Outdoor Brands (AOUT) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 10 cents per share on revenue of $45.4 million

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-b...27763.html

JPMorgan profit falls 28%, Dimon cautious on global economy
July 14 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a bigger-than-expected 28% fall in second-quarter profit on Thursday as America's largest bank set aside more money to cover potential losses in the face of growing risks of a recession.

The bank's shares slid more than 4%as it recorded $1.1 billion in provision for credit losses compared with last year when it released $3 billion from its reserves.

The four biggest U.S. banks are expected to record $3.5 billion of loss provisions for the quarter, as they brace for a sharp economic slowdown with the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressivelyraising interest rates to control runaway inflation........

.......The bank posted a profit of $8.6 billion, or $2.76 per share, missing the average analyst expectation of $2.88 per share, according to Refinitiv..........




https://www.reuters.com/business/finance...022-07-14/

Morgan Stanley misses analysts’ profit expectations on worse-than-expected investment banking
Published Thu, Jul 14 2022 7:03 AM EDT
Updated Moments Ago


Morgan Stanley posted results on Thursday below analysts’ expectations for second quarter profit and revenue on weaker-than-expected investment banking revenue.

Here are the numbers:

    Earnings of $1.39 per share vs $1.53 of estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
    Revenue of $13.13 billion vs $13.48 billion estimate

Profit dropped 29% from a year earlier to $2.5 billion, or $1.39 per share, the New York-based bank said in a release. Revenue dipped 11% to $13.13 billion, driven by the steep 55% decline in investment banking revenue.
The results confirm what some analysts had feared for Morgan Stanley, which runs one of the larger equity capital markets operations on Wall Street. The firm’s investment banking division produced $1.07 billion in second-quarter revenue, $400 million below analysts’ $1.47 billion estimate that itself had been ratcheted down in recent weeks.........

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/morgan-s...ings-.html

Jobless Claims - höher als erwartet
https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull....ek.asp#top


Producer Prices - ebenso höher als erwartet
https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull....ek.asp#top

Stocks finish mixed as investors weigh rate hikes, recession fears
Alexandra Semenova
Reporter
Thu, July 14, 2022 at 10:04 PM
U.S. stocks extended losses Thursday as investors digested earnings and recession talk from Wall Street's big banks while reeling from shock inflation data that raised the possibility of a 100 basis point rate hike later this month.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed back from session lows of nearly 2% but each closed down 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq teetered into positive territory to cap the session just above breakeven.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was in the spotlight Thursday after reporting a wider-than-expected drop in second-quarter profit of 28%, attributing the decline to a $1.1 billion in provision for credit losses amid concerns over a possible economic downturn. Shares closed down 3.5%.

“In our global economy, we are dealing with two conflicting factors, operating on different timetables," CEO Jamie Dimon said. "The U.S. economy continues to grow and both the job market and consumer spending, and their ability to spend, remain healthy."

"But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road," Dimon added......

“Markets had a knee-jerk reaction after the eye-popping inflation numbers and the headline number of 9.1% only makes the job that much harder for the Fed,” Allianz Investment Management Senior Investment Strategist Charlie Ripley said. “As a result, the Fed is likely going to send a hawkish message at the July meeting, and it would be a mistake to think that a rate hike less than 75 basis points is in the cards.”.........

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-mar...58342.html



Nice Day - gibts nix zu meckern....

[attachment=10886]

What to Watch Today

Economic calendar

• 8:30 a.m. ET: Empire Manufacturing, July (-2.0 expected, -1.2 during prior month),
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales Advance, month-over-month, June (0.9% expected, 0.3% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales excluding autos, month-over-month, June (0.7% expected, 0.5% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, June (0.1% expected, 0.1% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales Control Group, June (0.3% expected, 0.0% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Import Price Index, month-over-month, June (0.7% expected, 0.6% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Import Price Index excluding Petroleum, month-over-month, June (0.2% expected, -0.1% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Import Price Index, year-over-year, June (11.4% expected, 11.7% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Export Price Index, month-over-month, June (1.2% expected, 2.8% during prior month)
  
• 8:30 a.m. ET: Export Price Index, year-over-year, June (19.9% expected, 18.97% during prior month)
  
• 9:00 a.m. ET: Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
  
• 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial Production, month-over-month, June (0.1% expected, 0.2% during prior month, downwardly revised to 0.1%)
  
• 9:15 a.m. ET: Capacity Utilization, June (80.8% expected, 79.0% during prior month, upwardly revised to 80.8%)
  
• 9:15 a.m. ET: Manufacturing (SIC) Production, June (-0.1% expected, -0.1% during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: Business Inventories, May (1.4% expected, 1.2% during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Sentiment, July preliminary (50 expected, 50 during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Current Conditions, July preliminary (53.7 expected, 53.8 during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Expectations, July preliminary (47 expected, 47.5 during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation, July preliminary (5.3 expected, 5.3% during prior month)
  
• 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan 5-10-Year Inflation, June final (3.0% expected, 3.1% during prior month)
  

Earnings
Pre-market

• Wells Fargo (WFC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $17.54 billion
  
• BlackRock (BLK) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $7.90 per share on revenue of $4.65 billion
  
• Citigroup (C) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $18.48 billion
  
• BNY Mellon (BK) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.12 per share on revenue of $4.18 billion
  
• UnitedHealth (UNH) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $5.19 per share on revenue of $79.62 billion
  
• Progressive (PGR) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $12.39 billion
  
• US Bancorp (USB) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share on revenue of $5.92 billion
  
• State Street (STT) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share on revenue of $3 billion
  
• PNC Financial (PNC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $3.14 per share on revenue of $5.14 billion
  

Post-market

• No notable reports scheduled for release.
  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-b...52788.html

Stock futures rise amid retail sales data, bank earnings
Alexandra Semenova
Reporter
Fri, July 15, 2022 at 2:52 PM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-mar...42953.html



Citigroup tops profit estimates as bank benefits from rising interest rates, shares pop 4%
Published Fri, Jul 15 2022
7:30 AM EDT
Updated Moments Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/15/citigrou...nings.html



Wells Fargo profit falls as the bank sets aside funds for bad loans, company’s shares drop
Published Fri, Jul 15 2022
7:03 AM EDT
Updated 6 Min Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/15/wells-fa...nings.html



BlackRock misses profit estimates as market turbulence spooks investors
Manya Saini and Carolina Mandl
Fri, July 15, 2022 at 12:17 PM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock...56376.html

Denke die Woche wird da eher durchwachsen. Der eine oder andere Impuls kann für einen Spike nach
oben oder nach unten sorgen. Nach oben denke ich ist die Dynamik eher begrenzt - nach unten könnte
es wieder Geschwindigkeit aufnehmen und die nächste Abwärtswelle starten. Alles ist möglich. Ich rechne
diese Woche eher mit einer mehr oder weniger volatilen Seitwärtsphase bis es an irgendeinem Punkt
(Widerstände, Trendkanalbegrenzungen, Unterstützungen) interessanter werden könnte.

Also ehrlich gesagt hätte ich eher mit einer engeren mehr "seitwärts" gerichteten Woche gerechnet.
Die Spikes und der Drive nach unten war dann doch stärker. Am Ende haben die Unterstützungen
gehalten und es ging wieder rauf. Am Ende der Woche sind wir wieder in dem Bereich in dem die Woche
gestartet ist. Also irgendwie doch seitwärts wenn man das Endergebnis bzw. den Schlusskurs betrachtet....  

Sehr schöne Trading-Woche mit sehr erträglichen Laufzonen. Kann man nicht meckern.


[attachment=10893]



Stocks close higher after upbeat retail sales, strong Citi earnings
Alexandra Semenova
Reporter
Fri, July 15, 2022 at 10:04 PM

U.S. stocks rallied Friday to cap a four-day losing streak on Wall Street. Sentiment was buoyed by better-than-expected retail sales data and a surprise earnings beat from Citigroup ©.

The S&P 500 surged 1.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 657 points, or roughly 2.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.8%.

Blowout second-quarter results from Citi lifted shares of banking industry peers to post the best intraday rally for the sector since May, according to Bloomberg data. The mega bank reported an 11% jump in revenue for the period to $19.64 billion, one day after traders mulled a set of disappointing financials from JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS). Shares of Citi closed up 13%. Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) gained 6% and 7%, respectively.

“In a challenging macro and geopolitical environment, our team delivered solid results and we are in a strong position to weather uncertain times, given our liquidity, credit quality and reserve levels,” Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said in the earnings statement.................

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-mar...42953.html

[attachment=10914]


Alte Widerstände, Trendkanäle haben sich bestätigt.
Mögliche neue Aufwärtstrendkanäle und neue Unterstützungen haben sich gebildet.

Die alte Bewertung hat weitgehend weiter bestand....

Situation im ES
Das Tief von 15./16. Juni (ca. 3640) könnte mit den höheren Tiefs von 30. Juni/1. Juli (ca. 3720)
eine untere Aufwärtstrendlinie bilden wenn die 3750 halten. Wenn die Marke von 3800/3850 hält könnte
es vorerst wieder in Richtung und über 4000 Punkte laufen.


Mögliche horizontale Widerstandszonen
3920
4000
4070
4085
4170/80
4200

Widerstände sind ebenso die vorhandenen Abwärtsrendlininen die überwunden werden müssen.
An diesen könnte es träge werden, bei überwinden dann zusätzliche starke Dynamik enstehen.

Ängste wegen Rezession, Inflation, Zinserhöhungen schweben weiter über dem Markt und 
können weiter jederzeit zu Abwärtsdruck führen.

Interessant sind diesbezüglich weitere Konjunkturdaten und die jetzt startende Berichtssaison
der Unternehmen. Hier gibt es ab jetzt bis Mitte August eine Flut an Meldungen.
Ein besonderes Auge wird sicher auf die Aussagen zu den Aussichten geworfen.

Ergänzung
In der Zone 3750 bis 3800 hat sich eine neue Unterstützungszone gebildet - sollte es runterlaufen
könnte es hier eine Rebound geben.

Wenn diese Zone nicht hält ist die nächste erkennbare Unterstützung bei 3650 - sollte diese ebenfalls überrannt
werden besteht höheres Abwärtspotenzial - 3600 - 3500 - 3400.

Bei der Stärke des letzten Rebounds würde ich jetzt erstmal eher mit Kursen über 4000 rechnen.
Überraschungen drohen wie üblich von der Berichtsfront (Konjunkturdaten, Earningssaison).

Nächste FED-Sitzung voraussichtilich übernächste Woche Di. 26./ Mi. 27. Juli bei der der Zins voraussichtlich
zwischen 0,75 und 1,0 Basispunkte erhöht wird.

Dementsprechend könnten gute Konjunkturdaten/Unternehmensmeldungen schlecht sein -
weil eher um 1,0 Basis-Punkte erhöht wird.

Schlechte Daten/Meldungen könnten gut sein weil der Zins eher um nur 0,75 Basis-Punkte erhöht wird.

Unterm Strich - Charttechnisch weiteres Aufwärtspotenzial vorhanden wenn die 3900 überwunden werden.
Widerstände/Abwärtstrendlinien wie beschrieben - bei überwinden könnte es immer wieder mit hoher
Dynamik aufwärts gehen. Daten/Meldungen könnten das ganze als Spielverderber wieder nach Süden drehen.

Fragt sich ob die Dynamik stärker ist als die Verunsicherung wie es speziell mit der FED weitergeht.
Holzauge sei wachsam. Richtig interessannt wird es am 26./27. Juli....