Tägliche Markt- und Wirtschaftskommentare

Inflation as reported by the Dallas Fed’s 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE is 1.99% which leaves the ‘Natural Rate’ at 4.94%. Using the ‘Natural Rate’ to capitalize the long-term SP500 EPS trend indicates that the SP500 is ~25% premium to the Value Investor Index. Since 1978, the Value Investor Index has been useful at identifying significant lows in the SP500. Not as useful, yet still meaningful, the SP500 develops Value Investor Index premiums in the 60%-100% range during previous speculative peaks. Extending forward to 2023, the SP500 would need to reach $5,000 to match 60% premium levels.

https://www.valueplays.net/2019/09/06/employment-vehicle-sales-real-personal-income-the-sp-value-index/