J P Morgan:
"We are lowering our estimates of UW-rated Weight Watchers and adding it to the US Equity Analyst Focus List as our top short idea after the company issued 2019 EPS guidance of $1.25- $1.50 that was well below even our bearish estimate of $2.50 going into the print... We believe 2019 revenue guidance may be at risk as it embeds: (1) recruitment trends improve from current levels following the Spring marketing campaign and easy 2H compares; (2) retention rates improve to over 10 months during 2019 vs. 9-10 months currently; and (3) limited marketing re-investments beyond 1Q19, which will likely constrain recruitment efforts..."
"We are lowering our estimates of UW-rated Weight Watchers and adding it to the US Equity Analyst Focus List as our top short idea after the company issued 2019 EPS guidance of $1.25- $1.50 that was well below even our bearish estimate of $2.50 going into the print... We believe 2019 revenue guidance may be at risk as it embeds: (1) recruitment trends improve from current levels following the Spring marketing campaign and easy 2H compares; (2) retention rates improve to over 10 months during 2019 vs. 9-10 months currently; and (3) limited marketing re-investments beyond 1Q19, which will likely constrain recruitment efforts..."
