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Should You Buy the Saudi Aramco IPO?
...One of those risks concerns Aramco’s profitability in a world of volatile oil prices and a region of geopolitical tensions. The company recently disclosed a decline in net profit of 18% to $68 billion for the nine months that ended in September from the same period a year ago. Oil prices were higher last year and unlike this year, Aramco wasn’t the subject of drone attacks that wiped out about half of its daily crude production. While oil price volatility comes with the industry, the attacks raise the risk premium on those new shares. ...
...If the Saudi government is strapped for cash, it could be tempted to dip a little deeper into the profits of its oil company. That wouldn’t be a completely unprecedented move for the government of an emerging-market economy to make, according to Uday Patnaik, head of emerging-market debt at U.K.-based asset manager Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. “Guess where you go if you need some tax money? You go to your quasi-sovereigns,” he told the Journal. ...
...Currently, Aramco pays out $75 billion in annual dividends. At the company’s desired $2 trillion valuation, that’s a dividend yield of just 3.75%. Even at the company’s base valuation of around $1.7 trillion, the yield would be just 4.4%. At the $1.5 trillion that some investors think is more realistic, the yield would be 5%. Aramco executives have signalled that the company may boost the initial dividend payout to $80 billion and could later elevate it to $100 billion, generating yields of 4% and 5% respectively. But compared to the average 5.7% dividend yield offered by Western oil majors and the average 6.3% yield offered by other emerging oil majors, even 5% might not be enough to entice foreign investors. ...
https://www.investopedia.com/the-risks-s...po-4775623
Should You Buy the Saudi Aramco IPO?
...One of those risks concerns Aramco’s profitability in a world of volatile oil prices and a region of geopolitical tensions. The company recently disclosed a decline in net profit of 18% to $68 billion for the nine months that ended in September from the same period a year ago. Oil prices were higher last year and unlike this year, Aramco wasn’t the subject of drone attacks that wiped out about half of its daily crude production. While oil price volatility comes with the industry, the attacks raise the risk premium on those new shares. ...
...If the Saudi government is strapped for cash, it could be tempted to dip a little deeper into the profits of its oil company. That wouldn’t be a completely unprecedented move for the government of an emerging-market economy to make, according to Uday Patnaik, head of emerging-market debt at U.K.-based asset manager Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. “Guess where you go if you need some tax money? You go to your quasi-sovereigns,” he told the Journal. ...
...Currently, Aramco pays out $75 billion in annual dividends. At the company’s desired $2 trillion valuation, that’s a dividend yield of just 3.75%. Even at the company’s base valuation of around $1.7 trillion, the yield would be just 4.4%. At the $1.5 trillion that some investors think is more realistic, the yield would be 5%. Aramco executives have signalled that the company may boost the initial dividend payout to $80 billion and could later elevate it to $100 billion, generating yields of 4% and 5% respectively. But compared to the average 5.7% dividend yield offered by Western oil majors and the average 6.3% yield offered by other emerging oil majors, even 5% might not be enough to entice foreign investors. ...
https://www.investopedia.com/the-risks-s...po-4775623
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