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18. Dezember 2023
















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Fed's preferred inflation gauge and Nike earnings: What to know this week

Josh Schafer·Reporter
Sun, December 17, 2023 at 7:25 PM GMT+1

A fresh reading of the Fed's preferred inflation measure will put the market rally to the test in the week ahead.

The November release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is slated for Friday as economists project inflation will continue to track lower. The economic calendar will also feature updates on housing, consumer confidence, and the final reading of third quarter economic growth.

On the corporate side, Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Micron (MU) and Carnival (CCL) are set to report quarterly results.

The S&P 500 will open Monday having closed seven-straight weeks higher, its longest stretch since 2017. Stocks surged after the latest Federal Reserve meeting left investors expecting more interest rate cuts next year than previously anticipated.

The past week saw the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), the S&P 500 (^GSPC), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) all rise above 2% while the Dow Jones breached 37,000 for the first time ever.

Inflation in focus

Key to the Fed's call for more rate cuts in 2024 is the central bank's belief that inflation is falling faster to its 2% target than previously hoped. In the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the central bank revealed it now sees core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, declining to 2.4% next year. It had previously expected inflation to close 2024 at 2.6%.

"Inflation keeps coming down," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference on December 13. "The labor market keeps getting back into balance. And it's so far so good, although we kind of assume that it will get harder from here, but so far it hasn't."

Powell noted inflation remains above the Fed's 2% goal and just how far inflation sits above that target will be revealed on Friday with the latest PCE print.

Economists expect annual "core" PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 3.4% in November. Over the prior month, most economists expect "core" PCE at 0.2%.

"November PCE inflation should show a noticeable step down," Bank of America US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a research note on Friday. "We expect a rise of only 0.1% at the core."

He added: "Altogether, it should put another arrow in the Fed’s quiver that inflation pressures are moderating."

Stocks to shed light on the consumer

Indices and ETFs to watch

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data:

New York Fed Services Business Activity, December (-11.9 previously)


Earnings:

No notable earnings.

Tuesday

Economic data:

Housing starts, November (1.36 million expected, 1.37 million previously);
Building permits, November (1.47 million expected, 1.49 million prior)


Earnings:

Accenture (ACN),
FedEx (FDX)

Wednesday

Economic data:

MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending December 15 (+7.4% prior);
Existing home sales, November (3.77 million expected, 3.79 previously);
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, December (104 expected, 102 previously);

Earnings:

Blackberry (BB),
General Mills (GIS),
Micron (MU)

Thursday

Economic data:

Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 16 (215,000 expected, 202,000 previously);
Continuing jobless claims, week ended Dec. 9 (1.88 million expected, 1.88 million previously);
Third quarter GDP, final estimate (+5.2% annualized rate expected, +5.2% previously);
Third quarter personal consumption, final estimate (+3.6% annualized expected; +3.6% previously);
Philadelphia Fed business outlook, December (-3 expected, -5.9 previously)

Earnings:

Karmax (KMX),
Carnival (CCL),
Nike (NKE)

Friday

Economic news:

Personal income, month-over-month, November (+0.4% expected, +0.2% previously);
Personal spending, month-over-month, November (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously);
PCE inflation, month-over-month, November (+0.0% expected,+ 0.0% previously);
PCE inflation, year-over-year, November (+2.8% expected, +3% previously);
"Core" PCE, month-over-month, November (+0.2% expected, +0.2% previously);
"Core" PCE, year-over-year, November (+3.4% expected; +3.5% previously);
New home sales, November (687,000 annualized rate expected, 679,000 previously);
New home sales, month-over-month, November (+1.1% expected, -5.6% previously);
Durable goods orders, November (2.2% expected, -5.4% previously);
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (69.4 expected, 69.4 previously)


Earnings:

No notable earnings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-pref...ccounter=1

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Marktberichte

marktbericht
Nach dem großen Verfallstag
Haben die DAX-Bullen ihr Pulver verschossen?

Stand: 18.12.2023 07:39 Uhr

Der Rekordjagd im DAX ist der Schwung ausgegangen. Es deutet sich ein verhaltener Start in die neue Börsenwoche an. Nun wird sich weisen, ob mit dem Verfallstag eine DAX-Wende nach unten eingeleitet wurde.

Stock market news today: US futures keep grip on highs, looking to build on 7-week rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-mar...52808.html?

Stocks rise slightly Monday as market adds to seven-week advance: Live updates

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/17/stock-fu...dates.html